February 25, 2007

Oscar Predictions

I predict that a bunch of my predictions this year will be wrong.

Oh sure, there are some prohibitive favorites in the major categories. It will be a shocker if Helen Mirren doesn't win for "The Queen," Jennifer Hudson for "Dreamgirls," or Martin Scorcese for "The Departed," and I'll agree.

There seems to be a boomlet for Peter O'Toole as best actor, but I'll side with the conventional wisdom -- Forest Whitaker.

Lots of interesting choices in the screenplay races, but my guess is that "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Departed" will win, although some voters must have considered voting for "Borat" just to see what Sacha Baron Cohen will do if he gets ahold of the microphone.

The two most interesting races in the major categories are best supporting actor and best picture.

I'd say that right now, it's a tossup whether Alan Arkin or Eddie Murphy will win for best supporting actor. Some pooh-pooh the theory, but I do subscribe to the notion that the fact that "Norbit" opened right when Oscar voters were filling out their ballots will hurt Eddie Murphy's chances. Murphy doesn't seem particularly popular in Hollywood, but with no conviction, I'll pick Murphy to win by a whisker.

Best picture? Oy. I can't ever remember a year where three movies were equal favorites to win. It won't be a surprise unless a movie other than "The Departed," "Little Miss Sunshine", or "Babel" wins. Up until yesterday, my crystal ball read "Sunshine," but for no logical reason, I'm going to pick "Babel," which I haven't seen.