February 27, 2005

Oscars

This is an unusual year. In the major categories, only Jamie Foxx is a prohibitive favorite, and even this is rare (usually, when an actor is nominated for best actor and best supporting actor, he wins the supporting prize, but Foxx is destined to win for Ray).

I've seen all five of the nominated best picture films (I have not seen Hotel Rwanda, Maria Full of Grace, or Collateral) and since it's my blog, here are my unsolicited opinions.

BEST PICTURE:

Who Will Win: Million Dollar Baby
Who Should Win: Million Dollar Baby

The conventional wisdom is that this is a two-horse race between Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator. I have yet to meet a single human being that loves The Aviator. To me, it's a mess -- over-directed, badly acted, and utterly unconvincing in its period depictions. None of the five nominees are even near perfect, but Baby wins by a nose, with Finding Neverland and Sideways close behind. My favorite movies of 2004 are Vera Drake and The Incredibles.

BEST ACTOR:

Who Will Win: Jamie Foxx, for Ray
Who Should Win Johnny Depp, for Finding Neverland

Jamie Foxx gave a pitch-perfect impersonation of Ray Charles, but ultimately I was moved more by Depp. I assume the only actor who could conceivably beat Foxx is Clint Eastwood, but I wouldn't bet on it.

BEST ACTRESS:

Who Will Win: Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Who Should Win: Hilary Swank for MDB or Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake

Less than a week ago, it was Staunton all the way for me, and then I saw Million Dollar Baby. I just can't pick between my two favorite lead performances of the year. Although she's a particular favorite of mine, I'd be upset if Annette Bening is rewarded for her body of work by winning for her star turn in Being Julia.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Who Will Win: Morgan Freeman for MDB
Who Should Win: Clive Owen for Closer

With the exception of Alan Alda, all of the nominees are worthy, and I'd be tickled if Thomas Haden Church won for Sideways. But Owen best fits the tenets of this category. All three of the other actors in Closer shared their best scenes with Owen. Jude Law came alive in his confrontation with Owen's character.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
Who Should Win: Virginia Madsen for Sideways

My favorite supporting performance in 2004 was Lynn Redgrave's short but devastating turn in Kinsey. But the nominated field is strong from top to bottom.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who Will Win: Clint Eastwood for MDB
Who Should Win Mike Leigh for Vera Drake

I have no confidence at all in my prediction. Almost certainly, Martin Scorcese will win more votes as director than his movie will for best picture. It's totally understandable to want to reward Scorcese for other (and better movies) but sheesh -- please don't do it for The Aviator!